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An October Surprise

By: Steve Nolan with M.S. Wall


If I were an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next twelve weeks. –Efraim Halevy, former Chief of Mossad


The term October Surprise dates back to the many events that have occurred around this time of year in the presidential election cycles. In 1972, President Nixon’s then National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, announced that “we believe peace is at hand” despite that fact that the Vietnam war dragged on another 3 years after this maneuver helped assure Nixon’s victory over his opponent, George McGovern. We also can remember in the 1980 presidential race when President Jimmy Carter failed to orchestrate a last-minute release of the Iranian Embassy hostages right before the race against Ronald Reagan. Some think Ronald Reagan actually negotiated a deal with Iran to delay the hostages’ release until after the election. Whether these events and the others that have happened during this time of the election season are fact or mere conjecture is not the point. The point is when elections get heated, funny things happen in the news in late October and as Preppers, we should be very wary of what’s going on around us this time around.

IDF Attack PlanesSo, what would be the most likely October Surprise given what is going on in our world today? We think it will involve an outbreak of war in the Middle East, but it could follow a couple of different story lines…

ABC News recently released a story entitled Obama vs. Romney: Will October Bring a Political Surprise? speculating that because the polls show the election is so close, that an Iranian attack on American interests could swing the election.

If you consider that President Obama’s approval rating jumped 9% following the announcement that Osama Bin Laden had been killed, you shouldn’t be surprised when Obama and company jump to exploit any upcoming crisis and not let it go to waste. A decisive move in reaction to Iranian “aggressions” or even a preemptive strike against Iran would likely create a huge upsurge of patriotic fervor in America and might fully neutralize Mitt Romney’s suggestion that Obama is weak on foreign policy. Will Obama issue the orders himself or simply give Benjamin Netanyahu the green light to throw the first blow on Iran?


Posted: February 25, 2012, 8:24 pm

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